Economists warn that the impending ‘super’ El Niño could lead to a significant rise in global food prices, lasting until 2028. This weather phenomenon, expected to intensify due to climate change, threatens harvests worldwide, compounding existing inflation pressures exacerbated by the ongoing Iran conflict. As supply chains brace for dual shocks, the potential for a 15.8% increase in food commodity prices looms, with Europe likely to see a 1.3% rise in food costs.
The effects of El Niño are not immediate; they will unfold over time due to the varying planting and harvesting cycles of different crops. For instance, the current drier conditions in India are already impacting wheat and rice supplies. Analysts suggest that the repercussions could take until late 2028 to fully materialise, as logistical challenges and regional climate variations complicate the situation.
Lower-income countries, already struggling with the fallout from the Iran war, are expected to be hit hardest by these food supply disruptions. El Niño typically brings drought to southern Africa and northern South America, while causing flooding in southern Brazil and surrounding regions. This uneven impact means that while some areas may benefit from warmer weather, many others will face severe agricultural challenges.
As the global community prepares for these changes, the interconnectedness of food systems means that even modest disruptions could lead to significant price increases. The situation underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies in agriculture and food supply management to mitigate the long-term impacts of climate-related events like El Niño.
Source: The Guardian
